I love the Stockdale Paradox The Stockdale Paradox highlights a powerful truth: the balance between hope and realism. Optimistic pessimism acknowledges reality without losing resolve. Blind optimism leaves you unprepared, while pessimism saps motivation. By preparing for the worst, you gain confidence to handle any outcome, fostering genuine, grounded hope. This balance turns adversity into a challenge, not a defeat.
I have always wondered about this, and never had an answer. Being optimistic feels good and is motivating, but it's delusional and often leads to disappointment. Sometimes I feel like if I'm pessimistic I see things more accurately... but it doesn't feel good and makes everything seem pointless. I have always gone back and forth. Here I may have finally found the answer.
That's not how I see optimism. Optimism is not so much a belief as an attitude. "I can succeed if I work hard and intelligently." Pessimism is a passive, depressive attitude that doesn't just predict failure but causes it. I have long distinguished passive optimism (which includes hope) from active or dynamic optimism which helps to create the conditions for success.
That's an interesting thought. I think we should clarify these two definitions of optimism. Let me know if you agree with this:
1. Passive optimism: A delusional expectation that good things will happen
2. Dynamic optimism: A positive attitude about following a plan, overcoming the inevitable obstacles that will come along, and achieving long term goals
If we're on the same page about your framework then I think it's a good one - I had never heard that before and it's a brilliant way to approach the problem I described in my post above.
I agree with your distinction between passive and active optimism. Active optimism is about agency and taking responsibility for shaping outcomes, whereas passive optimism leans more on wishful thinking or external factors. Your definition reminds me of the concept of self-efficacy—the belief in one’s ability to influence events through effort and strategy. This kind of optimism isn’t blind; it’s rooted in action, resilience, and learning. In contrast, pessimism often becomes self-fulfilling by undermining effort and focus. Your framing of dynamic optimism as a driver of success resonates deeply—it’s not just a mindset but a force for creating opportunities.
Regarding “Sphexishness is when you blindly follow a rule without checking if the rule works in the present situation.”
I once thought that people who did the above weren’t very smart and lead the unexamined lives that Throeau wrote of. Then I read about a primitive society that went through a 26 step process to prepare an important part of their diet (I can’t remember what book I read about this in). They had been doing this so for many generations that nobody alive knew what the original reason for procedure was. Turns out that the plant they were eating was toxic and all 26 steps were necessary to detoxify it. In other words, mindless conformity kept them fed and alive.
This also brings to mind a well known quote from G.K. Chesterton: “Don’t remove a fence until you understand why it was put there.” Unfortunately, there are things about the past that we may never know.
There is also not time enough in life to examine everything thoroughly. One must pick and choose what one wants to examine. Time spent examining x is time that can’t be spent doing y.
A counterpoint is this excellent review (https://www.thepsmiths.com/p/review-sick-societies-by-robert-b) which shows that sometimes, people/civiliations really do completely stupid or desctructive things out of sheer habit. This does not disprove the Chesterton quote, but one cannot blindly assume that every fence is there for a good reason, either.
If we assume the people of the past were either stupid or less enlightened than we are, we end up repeating the same stupid mistakes of the past. On the other hand, if we assume the ancients were geniuses and we never deviate from their wisdom, nothing ever changes and progress comes to a halt. So the trick is to know when we are sitting on the shoulders of giants vs. when we have learned nothing from the wisdom of the ages.
This is a wonderfully helpful treasure trove! Thank you for the intriguing summaries and I am sure there will be plenty of fascinating things to discover as I dive into each linked article over time. Very much appreciated, Gurwinder!
No. 15 Goal Dilution Effect reminds me of creative work- I first learned it from photo editing: say you have five good photos, pick only the strongest; there is only one best shot. The others can be good but they are by-product. Same in writing-editing. Just say it the best way, you don't need to say it twice.
Far be it from me to give you "advice" but might I suggest that you include a handy tool to use to avoid following any rule sphexishly? (As a self-described maverick who still loves rules, even though he eschews them, and tends to ignore them on occasion, the concept of sphexishness spoke to me!)
Such an enjoyable and uplifting read. Therapeutic. Breads optimism. Things I thought I knew but didn't, and knew but couldn't articulate, and will never be able to without checking my notes!
The protege effect saved me from losing my scholarship in Business school. I was teaching others stuff I didn't know off hand, and ended up getting so much better at it.
I love the Stockdale Paradox The Stockdale Paradox highlights a powerful truth: the balance between hope and realism. Optimistic pessimism acknowledges reality without losing resolve. Blind optimism leaves you unprepared, while pessimism saps motivation. By preparing for the worst, you gain confidence to handle any outcome, fostering genuine, grounded hope. This balance turns adversity into a challenge, not a defeat.
I have always wondered about this, and never had an answer. Being optimistic feels good and is motivating, but it's delusional and often leads to disappointment. Sometimes I feel like if I'm pessimistic I see things more accurately... but it doesn't feel good and makes everything seem pointless. I have always gone back and forth. Here I may have finally found the answer.
That's not how I see optimism. Optimism is not so much a belief as an attitude. "I can succeed if I work hard and intelligently." Pessimism is a passive, depressive attitude that doesn't just predict failure but causes it. I have long distinguished passive optimism (which includes hope) from active or dynamic optimism which helps to create the conditions for success.
That's an interesting thought. I think we should clarify these two definitions of optimism. Let me know if you agree with this:
1. Passive optimism: A delusional expectation that good things will happen
2. Dynamic optimism: A positive attitude about following a plan, overcoming the inevitable obstacles that will come along, and achieving long term goals
If we're on the same page about your framework then I think it's a good one - I had never heard that before and it's a brilliant way to approach the problem I described in my post above.
I agree with your distinction between passive and active optimism. Active optimism is about agency and taking responsibility for shaping outcomes, whereas passive optimism leans more on wishful thinking or external factors. Your definition reminds me of the concept of self-efficacy—the belief in one’s ability to influence events through effort and strategy. This kind of optimism isn’t blind; it’s rooted in action, resilience, and learning. In contrast, pessimism often becomes self-fulfilling by undermining effort and focus. Your framing of dynamic optimism as a driver of success resonates deeply—it’s not just a mindset but a force for creating opportunities.
Regarding “Sphexishness is when you blindly follow a rule without checking if the rule works in the present situation.”
I once thought that people who did the above weren’t very smart and lead the unexamined lives that Throeau wrote of. Then I read about a primitive society that went through a 26 step process to prepare an important part of their diet (I can’t remember what book I read about this in). They had been doing this so for many generations that nobody alive knew what the original reason for procedure was. Turns out that the plant they were eating was toxic and all 26 steps were necessary to detoxify it. In other words, mindless conformity kept them fed and alive.
This also brings to mind a well known quote from G.K. Chesterton: “Don’t remove a fence until you understand why it was put there.” Unfortunately, there are things about the past that we may never know.
There is also not time enough in life to examine everything thoroughly. One must pick and choose what one wants to examine. Time spent examining x is time that can’t be spent doing y.
A counterpoint is this excellent review (https://www.thepsmiths.com/p/review-sick-societies-by-robert-b) which shows that sometimes, people/civiliations really do completely stupid or desctructive things out of sheer habit. This does not disprove the Chesterton quote, but one cannot blindly assume that every fence is there for a good reason, either.
If we assume the people of the past were either stupid or less enlightened than we are, we end up repeating the same stupid mistakes of the past. On the other hand, if we assume the ancients were geniuses and we never deviate from their wisdom, nothing ever changes and progress comes to a halt. So the trick is to know when we are sitting on the shoulders of giants vs. when we have learned nothing from the wisdom of the ages.
Don't forget the answer is 42. 😂
Cool stuff to ponder!
Happy new year.
2025- the year we are invaded by an alien called the truth 😆
This is a wonderfully helpful treasure trove! Thank you for the intriguing summaries and I am sure there will be plenty of fascinating things to discover as I dive into each linked article over time. Very much appreciated, Gurwinder!
Thank you for yet another wonderful list. Your precise writing style makes your articles a joy to read and re-read. 👏🏻
No. 15 Goal Dilution Effect reminds me of creative work- I first learned it from photo editing: say you have five good photos, pick only the strongest; there is only one best shot. The others can be good but they are by-product. Same in writing-editing. Just say it the best way, you don't need to say it twice.
As usual, fascinating insight, G.
Far be it from me to give you "advice" but might I suggest that you include a handy tool to use to avoid following any rule sphexishly? (As a self-described maverick who still loves rules, even though he eschews them, and tends to ignore them on occasion, the concept of sphexishness spoke to me!)
Excellent! I greatly appreciate the links to alternative articles that help flesh out the point more fully. Thank you!
Gurwinder helping to remind me of how much I don’t know, and how much still there is to learn. Thank you 🙏
A wonderful and refreshing read to start the new year with. Thank you for sharing.
Such an enjoyable and uplifting read. Therapeutic. Breads optimism. Things I thought I knew but didn't, and knew but couldn't articulate, and will never be able to without checking my notes!
Simply brilliant! Thank you and I am sharing widely 💙
Beautiful list! Thanks for posting and Happy New Year!
These are excellent, Gurwinder! I have seen WAY too much of #1 and #6, even in my local sphere.
I didn't even have a clue on most of these. Thanks for sharing Gurwinder. 🌻🩵
Me neither, I laughed by the time I reached the Rumsfeld Matrix! Perfectly described how I was feeling right then.
The protege effect saved me from losing my scholarship in Business school. I was teaching others stuff I didn't know off hand, and ended up getting so much better at it.